Cancer Intervention Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)
Modeling US Prostate Cancer Trends: PSA, Treatment and Risk

This study aims to determine the population impact of changing strategies for prostate cancer control, by linking trends in disease incidence and mortality with trends in screening and treatment. The advent of PSA screening has transformed the way in which prostate cancer is detected and managed in the US. Cause-specific survival among prostate cancer cases has increased dramatically, but the real increase in life expectancy during the PSA era remains unclear. We use surveillance modeling to address these questions, building on our previous CISNET work, which modeled PSA screening. Our methods combine simulation models and maximum likelihood analysis to shed light on two of the most active controversies in prostate cancer research: the value of PSA screening versus advances in prostate cancer treatment, and the link between disparities in care and racial differences in prostate cancer outcomes. This activity is supported by a grant from the National Institute of Health/National Cancer Institute grant (U01 CA88160)

Publications

Etzioni R, Tsodikov A, Mariotto A, Szabo A, Falcon S, Wegelin J, diTommaso D, Karnofski K, Gulati R, Penson DFG, Feuer EJ. Quantifying the Role of PSA Screening in the US Prostate Cancer Mortality Decline. Cancer Causes and Control. 2008 Mar;19(2):175-81. Abstract / Full Text

Telesca D, Gulati R, Etzioni R. Estimating Lead Time and Overdiagnosis Associated with PSA Screening from Prostate Cancer Incidence Trends. Biometrics. 2008 Mar;64(1):10-9.Abstract / Full Text

Mariotto AB, Etzioni R, Krapcho M, Feuer EJ. Reconstructing prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing patterns among black and white men in the US from Medicare claims and the National Health Interview Survey. Cancer. 2007 Mar 19;109(9):1877-1886.Abstract / Full Text

Zeliadt SB, Potosky AL, Penson DF, Etzioni R. Survival benefit associated with adjuvant androgen deprivation therapy combined with radiotherapy for high- and low-risk patients with nonmetastatic prostate cancer. International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology, Physics 2006 Oct 1;66(2):395-402. Abstract / Full Text

Shaw PA, Etzioni R, Zeliadt SB, Mariotto M, Karnofski K, Penson DF, Weiss NS, Feuer EJ. An Ecologic Study of PSA Screening and Prostate Cancer Mortality in Nine Geographic Areas of the US. American Journal of Epidemiology. 2004 Dec 1;160(11):1059-69. Abstract / Full Text

Feuer EJ, Etzioni R, Cronin K, Mariotto A. The Use of Modeling to Understand the Impact of Screening on US Mortality: Examples from Mammography and PSA Testing. Statistical Methods in Medical Research. 2004 Dec; 13(6) 421-42. Abstract

Inoue L, Etzioni R, Slate EH, Morrell C. Combining longitudinal studies of PSA. Biostatistics. 2004 Jul;5(3): 483-500. Abstract / Full Text

Etzioni R, Penson DF, Legler JM, di Tommaso D, Boer R, Gann PH, Feuer EJ. Overdiagnosis due to prostate-specific antigen screening: lessons from U.S. prostate cancer incidence trends. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 2002 Jul 3;94(13):981-990. Abstract / Full Text

Etzioni R, Legler JM, Feuer EJ, Merrill RM, Cronin KA, Hankey BF. Cancer surveillance series: interpreting trends in prostate cancer-part III: Quantifying the link between population prostate-specific antigen testing and recent declines in prostate cancer mortality. Journal of the National Cancer Institute 1999 Jun 16;91(12):1033-1039. Abstract / Full Text

Inoue LYT, Etzioni R, Morrell C, Müller P. Modeling Disease Progression with Longitudinal Markers. Journal of the American Statistical Association. In Press.

Etzioni R, Gulati R, Falcon S, Penson DF. Impact of PSA screening on the incidence of advanced stage prostate cancer in the US: A surveillance modeling approach. Medical Decision Making.In Press.